- The announcement of the next Prime Minister of the UK – Event of the week – Original Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson remains the front runner in the race and is widely expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister next Tuesday.
- Housing Data (USD, GMT 14:00) – A steady rate is anticipated for existing home sales in June at the firm 5.340 mln pace seen in May. The median sales price is estimated to ease to $275,000, for a y/y gain of 0.4%, down from 4.8% in May. In Q1, we saw an average sales pace of 5.207 mln. In Q2, a better 5.297 mln pace is expected.
Wednesday – 24 July 2019
- Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – Preliminary Composite PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to fall in July, to 51.8 and 52.5 respectively, while the Manufacturing PMIs are forecasted at 48.0 and 45.4 respectively.
- Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to decline in July, to 50.4 from 50.6 and 51.0 from 51.5 respectively.
Thursday – 25 July 2019
- German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip to 96.7, after it held steady the past 2 months around the 97 barrier.
- Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45) –The ECB is meeting on July 25, – shortly after the confirmation of the new PM in London and ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again at the end of the month. On balance, markets see more merit in keeping official rates unchanged next week, while moving to an official easing bias and promising that rates will be at “current or lower” levels well into next year.
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement (EUR, GMT 12:30) -The July meeting will clearly be a “live” one with doves and hawks battling it out over when to deliver the now widely expected easing measures. It is expected that the majority will see more merit in keeping policy settings unchanged, but change the guidance to introduce a clear easing bias.
- Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.0% in June, after a -1.3% figure in May. Transportation orders should rise 2.7%. Boeing orders rose to only 9 from just zero in May, with weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies should ease to 11.1 mln from an 11.3 mln pace in May. Durable shipments are expected to rise 0.5%, and inventories should rise 0.6%. The I/S ratio is expected to hold steady at 1.67 since April.
Friday – 26 July 2019
- Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow 1.8% in Q2, with a sturdy 2.4% growth rate for final sales thanks to solid growth rates of 3.9% for personal consumption and 4.3% for government purchases, alongside a big $27 bln unwind of the Q1 inventory pop.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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