FX News Today
- 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.513% and JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to -0.060%, as the stock rally stalled during the Asian session and the USD consolidated overnight.
- Big misses for ADP Jobs (50k) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (19-month low) pressed a pause on Equity rally.
- Parliament passed (by 1 vote) a bill to ask to extend Brexit Day beyond April 12, but it remains unclear whether there is time to get it through by May 22. A longer extension looks most likely while the odds of a full 2nd Referendum odds are also increased.
- Asian markets are mostly trading narrowly mixed, with traders waiting for another catalyst such as tangible progress on the US-Sino trade talks before pushing equity markets out further following the recent rally.
- Topix and Nikkei are down -0.11% and unchanged on the day respectively. The Hang Seng dropped -0.42%, while CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp are up 0.80%, with hopes of government stimulus after the government said it plans to cut some airline fees adding support. The ASX meanwhile lost -0.83%.
- Oil futures are trading at USD 62.37 per barrel.
- German Factory Orders just in and is a big miss it is (-4.2% vs expectations of +0.3%), putting the German Industry in recession territory.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
- GBPUSD reacted positively after the UK Parliament asked the government to ask for another extension of the Brexit deadline. Resistance level remains at 1.3184, with a strong one at 1.32, while Support is bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3137.
- EURUSD is trading close to but below its 200HMA at 1.1248, affected by the weaker than expected US data, with indicators not showing a clear direction.
- USDJPY paused its rise after the worsening in US data releases, stabilizing around the 111.40 level. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.73 and 111.68, although the former could change as the 200HMA could be binding.
- XAUUSD continues trading below 1300, fluctuating around the 1290 mark. Next Resistance point is at 1294.50 with indicators suggesting a mild upwards movement.
Main Macro Events Today
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Accounts, similar to the FOMC Minutes, provide an insight with regards to the policymakers’ thinking about the European economy’s potential.
- Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have decreased over the last week of March, while Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to have increased.
- Canada PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Canadian PMI is expected to have risen to 51.1 in March, compared to 50.6 in February.
Support and Resistance
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Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
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