A week that will be marked by meetings and decisions of practically all the world’s most important central banks is off to a slow start, with US futures fractionally up (+0.08% / +0.15%) after Friday’s drubbing. It was a decisive day for the weekly trend, sending both the US500 and US100 into negative territory for the second time in a row: only the US30 managed to close the week at +0.1%. The tech sector was the hardest hit, -2.2%, led by the Oracle debacle, -10%. On the other front, Utilities outperformed, +2.8%. This was on Friday, when the Nasdaq sank -1.75% and the US500 posted -1.22%: two factors contributed to this bad performance. First, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came out at 67.7, below expectations and well below its historical average, which is close to 86. This Index accounts for 2/3 of the US economy and is therefore a valuable indicator of the overall state of affairs there. The other major event that certainly helped the declines to be heavy was the UAW strike, for the first time simultaneously at the Ford, GM and Stellantis plants: the demands are for wage increases of up to 40% and the impact of such news on the perception of future inflation can be worrying. Today is poor in data, but from tonight Central Banks Week kicks off with the minutes of the latest RBA meeting and from Wednesday night onwards all the big central banks will cascade. The FED decision will be made on Wednesday evening.
Since the 3rd week of August, Antipodeans + CNH have relatively outperformed
- FX – USDIndex -0.12% at 104.86; Antipodeans are relatively stronger with AUDUSD +0.23% and NZDUSD +0.31%, this comes also on the back of USDCNH <7.30 (7.28 now). GBPUSD sits at 1.24, EURUSD +0.13% at 1.0673.
- Stocks – US Futures fractionally higher (US500 + 0.15%, US100 +0.22%, US30 +0.12%); GER40 futures are turning negative right now (-0.03% at 15869), CAC is -0.05%. Last Friday, META and NVDA sunk >-3%, Microsoft -2.50%.
- Commodities – USOil is trading close to 10-month high at $91.60, UKOil puts $95 in sight.
- GOLD – +0.32% at $1929, XAG +0.73% at $23.20.
Today: highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index, Bundesbank Monthly Report, remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, ECB de Guindos & Panetta.
Key Movers: XAUUSD (+0.22% @ $1928.09) is in a very tight range between its 50d and 200d MAs and close to the upper bound of a descending channel.
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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
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