Australia’s manufacturing industry has been in decline for six consecutive months, a situation which is still ongoing. The manufacturing PMI declined slightly from 49.6 in July to 49.4 in August. Expectations were low due to reduced new orders, resulting in reduced production and no indication that global demand is picking up. Deflation and economic failure in China, Australia’s main trading partner, will exacerbate the manufacturing sector’s problems.
Although the services sector experienced three consecutive months of growth at the start of the year, it is also struggling. The PMI fell from 47.9 to 46.7 points in August, its lowest in 19 months. The PMI report provided more evidence of a slowdown in the Australian economy, supporting the RBA’s decision to scale back interest rate hikes. The challenge facing the central bank is to stick to a path of interest rates that will allow the economy to settle down and make a soft landing without triggering a recession. The RBA took a pause in August and futures markets largely anticipate another pause at the September meeting.
Technical Review
AUDUSD, D1 – current developments suggest that the downtrend from 0.8006 is still ongoing. A decisive break of the 0.6169 support will target the FE61.8% projection of 0.8006-0.6169 and 0.7157 at 0.6021. The level will now remain an option as long as 0.6898 holds. On the H4 period, the intraday bias remains neutral and consolidation from 0.6363 could continue further, but downward movement leaves room for 0.6169. While a stronger recovery can’t be ruled out, it’s likely to be capped by the 0.6615 resistance.
Price is currently still trading below the 200 EMA, and the rebound due to weaker US PMI data looks to be a “dead cat bounce”, although RSI is in the expansion area but MACD is still in the selling area.
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Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
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