Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally.
What a week! It was a gigantic week with Dollar index ready to set its biggest 2-day fall since 2009, as concerns eased that overly aggressive Fed action will hit global growth and curb demand. Rate hike expectations have been trimmed in the wake of lower than anticipated US inflation data. On top of this China has eased Covid-quarantine rules, which has further boosted confidence in the global demand outlook. But will the sentiment remain next week?
Meanwhile the UK Autumn Statement and inflation are in the spotlight of next week’s agenda.
Monday – 14 November 2022
OPEC Monthly Report (12:00 GMT) Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.3% q/q and headline at 1.1% y/y from 3.5% y/y.
Tuesday – 15 November 2022
G20 Meetings – DAY 1 RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further aggressive rate hikes to quell still very elevated inflation rates.Industrial Production (CNY, GMT 02:00) – October’s production is expected to grow at 5.2% y/y from 6.3% y/y.Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count & Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The UK Index earnings plus Bonus is expected at 5.9% in September from 6.0%. Unemployment rate should steady at 3.5%.Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – October’s PPI should post gains of 0.4% for the headline and 0.3% for the core, following respective figures of 0.4% and 0.3% in September. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 8.2% from 8.8%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March. The y/y core measure is expected to tick down to 7.1% from 7.2%, versus an all-time high 9.7% in March.
Wednesday – 16 November 2022
G20 Meetings – DAY 2 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Worries about high inflation and rising interest rates weighed as the country is heading for recession, while the BoE tightens policy and the government prepares an austerity budget. In October though inflation is seen slightly lower but the overall inflation is expected to rise to 10.8% y/y from 10.1% y/y.Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada CPI for October is expected at 0.8% m/m from 0.1% m/m, with core headline rising at 6.3% y/y from 6.0% y/y. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – October Retail Sales are expected to expand to 0.4% m/m with a 0.2% ex-auto figure, after respective September figures of unchanged and 0.1%. A commodity price bounce in October after energy-led price declines through Q3 will lift nominal sales, and we expect a 4% October climb for the CPI gasoline index that will lift gasoline sales.
Thursday – 17 November 2022
UK Autumn Statement Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change for October is expected to grow by 15K from 0.9K, with the unemployment rate at 3.5% m/m.Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is expected to rise to -5.0 from -8.7 in October, versus a 2-year low of -12.3 in July and 48-year high of 50.2 in April of 2021. The various producer sentiment measures have moderated through 2022 from remarkably lofty peaks for most measures last November, with many of the various component categories now in contraction territory.Building Permits & Housing Starts (USD, GMT 13:30) – Housing starts are expected to fall -1.3% to a 1.420 mln pace in October from 1.439 mln in September and a 2-year low of 1.377 mln in July. Permits are expected to ease to a 2-year low of 1.530 mln from 1.564 mln in September. Pending home sales plunged -10.2% in September to a 2-year low, after a -2.0% drop in August. The MBA purchase index fell -15.0% to an 8-year low in October after a -4.6% September drop, and is entering November with a -2.3% decline.
Friday – 18 November 2022
Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Retail Sales are expected to ease a bit, with contraction at -0.5% m/m from -1.4% m/m and headline at -6.5% y/y from -6.9% y/y. Core Retail sales for October are expected to fall to -6.7 y/y from -6.2% y/y.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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