Oil pops and then drops

USOIL, H1

USOil moved higher yesterday, supported by the API weekly inventory report, which revealed a 2.1 mln bbl draw-down in crude stocks. Expectations had been for about a 0.5 mln bbl build. The price topped at $59.85 yesterday before turning lower during the US session and consolidating overnight around $59.10. Concerns over the fate of the US-China trade deal, following reports that China might be pulling back from promises, and a firming USD also added to the pressure on oil prices.

The breach of the $59.00 level has seen follow-through selling as the price moved today lows at $58.55. The Crossing EMA strategy triggered at 17:00 GMT yesterday and immediately ran to T1 at $58.95 before retracing to the daily pivot at $59.30. It triggered again today at 12:00 GMT and moved to both T1 ($58.95) and T2 ($58.72) within the following hour as it posted the low of the day.

Traders will now look to the 14:30 GMT release of weekly EIA inventory figures. Expectations are for a 0.5 mln bbl build up from last week’s 3.9 mln bbl draw-down.

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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