Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on the 3-day Jackson Hole Symposium. The failure of the central banks to grasp the inflationary impacts of the various shocks, and the subsequent failure to correct the misperception that “transitory” equated to “brief” or “turning soon,” made for very volatile trading. And after overstaying their welcome on the accommodative side, policymakers have been forced to shift to an overly aggressively tightening posture. Though it is too soon to declare victory on inflation, it appears price pressures have topped out. Now attention will turn to the potential for recessions as by-products of central bank actions.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 22 August 2022
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – In its latest report, The People’s Bank of China cut the rate on one-year policy loans by 10 basis points. The PBOC could cut the rates further as July consumption and output, retail sales, investment and industrial output data all came in lower than anticipated, implying signs of significant erosion in China’s economy.
Tuesday – 23 August 2022
Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prelim. Eurozone & Germany Services and Manufacturing PMIs for August are expected to deteriorate further with the Manufacturing sector in contraction, leaving the Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI at 48.8 from 49.9.Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK PMIs held up better than feared, with composite at 52.8. The fallout from the Ukraine war and the erosion of real disposable income will keep a lid on consumption trends going forward.Markit PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – August’s prelim. Services PMI in the US is expected higher at 52.6 from 47.3, while Manufacturing PMI is seen at 52.0 from 52.2.New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – A dip to -1.7% is anticipated for July for new home sales to a pace of 580k from 590k in June, versus a 9-month high of 839k last December. All the home sales metrics fell through Q2 with disruptions from the steep mortgage rate gains and soaring prices, alongside the counter-seasonal swings for this capacity-constrained sector after counter-seasonal rebounds through the winter months. Yet, elevated prices have left upside pressure on builders to bring products to market despite recent price cuts and ongoing shortages of labor, materials and buildable land.
Wednesday – 24 August 2022
US Durable & Nondefense Capital Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.7% in July with a 1.2% transportation orders rise, after a 2.0% headline increase in June that included a 5.2% transportation orders rise. Durable orders ex-transportation is pegged to rise 0.5%, after a 0.4% June increase. Defense orders are expected to fall -19.5%, following a 25.9% June rise.Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Housing starts have moderated into mid-year, and the NAHB housing index plunged to a 2-year low of just 55 in August from 67 in July. Pending home sales plunged -8.6% in June to a 2-year low.Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 22:45) – Final Q2 Retail Sales are expected to be confirmed at a contraction of -0.5% q/q.
Thursday – 25 August 2022
Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 1 Gross Domestic Product & German ifo Business Climate (EUR, GMT 06:00 & 08:00) – The Q2 GDP growth should remain at 1.5% y/y, while the number of this widely respected measure of German economic health is expected to continue to plunge to 86.6 from 88.6.ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11.30) Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Q2 GDP growth should improve to -0.5% from -0.9%, with a big upward bump of $25 bln for consumption and $2 bln hike for public construction, but downward bumps of -$4 bln for both exports and imports, -$3 bln for inventories, and -$2 bln for both residential and nonresidential construction. The Q2 GDP data will still depict a quarter with a huge inventory subtraction that still left a positive inventory accumulation rate, alongside a positive contribution from net exports after seven consecutive quarterly subtractions. Construction activity fell sharply in Q2, alongside a modest drop for equipment spending but another big gain for intellectual property investment. Consumption growth slowed, and government purchases continued to contract.
Friday – 26 August 2022
Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 2 Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal income is expected to rise by 0.6% in July after a 0.6% June gain. A 0.8% rise in compensation after a 0.4% gain, given a 0.4% July gain for hours-worked and a 0.5% rise for hourly earnings are anticipated.
Saturday – 27 August 2022
Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 3
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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