Subpar headline jobs and earnings numbers have not altered expectations for a 25 bp increase in the funds rate band, however, at the upcoming December 18-19 FOMC meeting another tightening is forecast. Also on both the Fed and ECB radar screens are two chronic issues that have plagued Europe and added to market volatility – Brexit and Italy. The UK parliament votes on the May Brexit plan on December 10, while EU leaders hold a summit on December 13-14 and could decide whether to accept any alterations to the already agreed upon deal.
United States: The week ahead in the US will feature data on consumption and inflation, alongside readings on industrial production and business inventories. The economic calendar resumes with an update on JOLTS job openings (Monday), followed by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday). Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November (Tuesday), and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October. MBA mortgage market data is on hand (Wednesday), along with a likely flat reading for headline CPI in November, after a 0.3% gain in October, while core prices should rise 0.2%, after a similar gain in October. EIA energy inventory data and the Treasury budget are due too (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8 (Thursday), after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1. November retail sales are seen rising just 0.1% (Friday).
Canada: A thin calendar in Canada this week, however, will not provide much in the way of key data. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to edge lower to 200.0k in November from 205.9k in October. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is expected to rise to 86.0% in Q3 from 85.5% in Q2. The capacity use report is unlikely to make much of a splash given that BoC looks a variety of indicators of capacity use and will evaluate its estimate of the degree of slack in the economy given Statistics Canada’s revision to the GDP trajectory. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen holding steady, while the Teranet/National Housing Price Index for November is due Wednesday.
Europe: With all eyes on the political stage this week, data releases are likely to take a back seat, even if the calendar includes key leading indicators. The last German ZEW Investor Confidence reading for the year (Tuesday) is expected to come in a little changed at -24.0 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, which in the light of the sharp decline in stock markets over the past weeks is hardly a surprise. The preliminary Eurozone Composite Markit PMI is seen rising to 53.0 from 52.7 in the previous month. The German reading (Thursday) to be confirmed at 2.2% y/y. This is in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability, but with core inflation still considerably lower. Meanwhile Eurozone October industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m after the correction of -0.3% m/m in September. Again, little more than a stabilization, with uncertainty over the outlook weighing on confidence, even if companies continue to hold a large number of unfilled orders and the labour market is looking increasingly tight in key countries such as Germany.
UK: It’s Brexit-time this week. The parliamentary vote on the government’s Brexit deal is Tuesday. As of late last week, it continued to look highly likely that the deal will be voted down, though there is scope for a surprise, should Eurosceptic MPs decide that this is the best they’re going to get. If the deal is rejected, it would immediately create scope for multitude scenarios in the coming weeks depending on how big the defeat is.
Japan: The December MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is penciled in at 4.0 from 6.5 previously. October machinery orders (Wednesday) are expected to have rebounded 9.0% m/m from the record 18.3% decline in September. That drop was much worse than expected, even when taking into account the various natural disasters. November PPI (Wednesday) should cool to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% amid the drop in oil prices. The October tertiary index (Wednesday) is forecast rising 0.5% m/m as activity in the service sector improves, following the -1.1% September decline. The December Tankan index (Friday) is estimated dipping to 17 from 19 for large manufacturers, and 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers as some optimism slides amid ongoing trade and growth worries. October revised industrial production is also due Friday.
China: The November industrial production (Friday) is forecast slowing slightly to 5.8% y/y from 5.9%, while November retail sales (Friday) is penciled in at 8.5% y/y from 8.6%, though risk is to the upside after record “Singles Day” sales.
Australia: The Q3 housing prices index (Tuesday) is seen falling 2.0% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% contraction in Q2. RBA Head of Domestic Markets Department Kohler speaks at the 31st Australasian Finance and Banking conference in Sydney (Thursday).
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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