Main Macro Events This Week
Trade and tariffs remained in the headlines through Q2 and along with political jitters, caused global consternation. And with the US’s July 6 deadline for collection of additional duties on Chinese products, tariffs will remain the center of attention. Behind the scenes however, US growth has picked up steam as the stimulative effects from deregulation, tax reform and fiscal measures start to take hold and overshadow the noise. While it looks as though Q3 will start off on the same footing as Q2, the big questions for the markets will be whether the trade skirmishes escalate, and whether US momentum can support growth over the rest of the world.
United States: It’s an important week in the US. Along with the July 4 Independence Day holiday, there are the month’s key releases. Additionally, July 6 is the deadline for tariffs on 818 lines of about $34 bln of Chinese goods. The data slate is headlined by the June jobs report, as well as manufacturing and services PMIs, vehicle sales, and trade. The FOMC minutes of the June 12, 13 meeting will provide extra insight on the shift to a more hawkish stance.
The June nonfarm payroll report (Friday) is expected to show a solid 200k increase in jobs after the 223k gain in May, while the jobless rate should hold steady at a low 3.8%. There’s ongoing controversy over the degree of slack in the system. On Monday, the ISM should slip to 58.0 in June, from May’s 58.7. Despite the expected decline, the index remains solid and not too far off from the 14-year high of 60.8 in February. The light vehicle sales (Tuesday) expected to rise to a 17.0 mln rate in June from 16.8 mln in May, with autos at 5.3 mln and trucks at 9.0 mln, versus respective rates of 5.2 and 8.9 mln in May. The May supply – disruption for truck assemblies from a fire at a parts supplier may disrupt truck sales in June and July, though more generally truck sales continue to drive vehicle sales. The May Trade Deficit (Friday) should narrow to -$43.5 bln, from -$46.2 bln in April and a cycle high -$55.5 bln in February, given the Advance Goods Trade Balance narrowing to -$68.2 bln.
Canada: Canada’s data docket contains two key reports that will inform the outlook for the Bank of Canada announcement next week. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 25.0k in June after the 7.5k drop in May and 1.1k dip in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade deficit is expected to widen to -C$2.2 bln in May from -C$1.9 bln in April. The June Ivey PMI (Friday) is anticipated to slide to a still expansionary 61.0 from 62.5 in May. Employment and trade in line with estimates would support the expectation that the Bank of Canada will lift rates 25 basis points to 1.50% in the July 11 announcement. Markit Canada manufacturing PMI for June is due on Tuesday. The markets are closed Monday in observation of the Canada Day holiday.
Europe: With the ECB having effectively clarified the policy path well into the second half of next year, and the important June summit out of the way without the new Italian government blowing up the party, the markets should be settling into a slower summer mood in a week that includes largely secondary data releases. So for now, market volatility is likely to continue adding to pressures on the ECB to revamp the rules on re-investment as it prepares to phase out net asset purchases by the end of the year.
Data releases are unlikely to change the overall picture significantly. The final readings on June PMIs are expected to confirm preliminary readings of 55.0 for both the Manufacturing (Monday) as well as the Services reading (Wednesday), which should leave the composite on course to be confirmed at 54.8. Readings still point to ongoing robust growth across both sectors and Markit reported with the preliminary numbers that part of the recent slowdown was indeed due to capacity constraints with delivery times lengthening. Meanwhile, German manufacturing orders (Thursday) are expected to rebound 1.0% m/m from the 2.5% m/m decline in April and industrial production is seen to pick up 0.2% m/m, after -1.0% m/m.
Events include ECBspeak from Weidmann (Thursday) as well as Nouy (Friday) and bond auctions in Spain and France on Thursday.
UK: The calendar brings the June Markit PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) anticipated at 54.0, down from 54.4 in May. Evidence suggests that the slowing in economic growth across the channel have been crimping export performance in the manufacturing sector. The construction PMI (Tuesday) is expected to arrive with an unchanged 52.5 headline reading, and anticipate the services PMI (Wednesday) to also hold unchanged, at 54.0. In-line data should keep the BoE on its gradualist tightening course, with markets looking for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate at the August MPC meeting.
Japan: The May personal income and PCE (Friday) should show spending contracting further to a -1.7% y/y clip, from the prior -1.3% outcome, another worrying sign from the region.
China: The June Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI should slip slightly to 51.0 from 51.1. The June services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 52.5 from 52.9. Again such results would add to worries over a slowdown and fears that tariff threats are weighing on sentiment.
Australia: The RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) casts a long shadow over a busy calendar. No change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate target as inflation remains low. The rate has been unchanged since the 25 bp cut in August 2016. The economic data docket is full this week. Building permits (Tuesday) are projected to bounce 2.0% in May (m/m, sa) after the 5.0% drop in April. May retail shipment values (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) following the 0.4% gain in April. The trade surplus (Wednesday) is seen at A$1.3 bln in May from A$1.0 bln in April.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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