Events to Look Out for Next Week

Tuesday – 13 July 2021

• Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – June’s Trade Balance for exports and imports are likely to show a pull back to 44.20 bln from the 45.54 bln in May, with exports and imports deducting to 23.1 y/y and 30% y/y.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for June is anticipated to slow down to 0.4% m/m from 0.5% with the headline at 2.4% y/y.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – June gains are anticipated at 0.4% for the CPI headline and 0.3% core, following May gains of 0.6% for the headline and 0.7% for the core. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 3.0% in June. As-expected June figures would result in a 4.8% headline y/y increase, following a 5.0% pace in May. Core prices should show a 3.8% y/y rise, up from 3.0% y/y in April.

Wednesday – 14 July 2021

• Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 02:00) – There have been speculations that RBNZ will not change its current 0.25% rate setting. However, the Fed’s hawkish tilt at its last meeting has rattled nerves on the outlook for the RBNZ and RBA, with worries that the banks may begin their own public discussion of tapering.
• Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The final June inflation could drop to 0.3% m/m in June from 0.6% m/m in the previous month, with the headline CPI rate stable at 2.1% y/y. At the same time producer price data could signals further price pressures ahead.
• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) – BOC is anticipated to proceed to a further cut to QE as the bank unwinds the emergency policy setting amid a recovering economy. The bank is expected to maintain its 0.25% rate setting at the July meeting and for an extended period ahead. The C$1.0 bln taper seen in July would leave QE totals at C$2.0 bln. A follow up cut of C$1.0 bln to C$1.0 bln in QE is seen around the turn of the year. The BoC tapered its QE program to C$3.0 bln from C$4.0 bln in April, but held it steady at the June announcement. Notably, the BoC has taken tangible steps to trim emergency accommodation, while the Fed is just getting started talking about tapering.

Thursday – 15 July 2021

• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a 30k growth from the surprise of 115.2K in May but unemployment ticking lower to 5.0% for June from 5.1% last month.
• Gross Domestic Product and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Chinese final Retail Sales for June expected to confirm at 13.6% y/y. Q2’s GDP is expected to rise at 13.6% q/q while headline seen at 8% y/y. Overall no significant changes are anticipated to the general trends of solid but slowing growth in China.
• Employment change & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to rise to 5.3% (3 Mo/y) in the three months to May. The UK ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.7%.
• Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 29.0 in July from 30.7 in June, versus a 48-year high of 50.2 in April and a previous 11-month high of 30.1 in January. Despite the small assumed swings, levels will likely remain robust. These diffusion indexes will be boosted into late-2021 as factory activity continues to attempt to rebuild inventories, following the huge Q1-Q2 spending boost from coronavirus vaccines and two rounds of stimulus payments. Demand for most industries has rebounded well above pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The final Q2 inflation could drop to 0.7% q/q from 0.8% q/q, with the headline CPI rate at 1.4% y/y.

Friday – 16 July 2021

• BOJ Interest Rate, MP Statement and Press Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00-06:00) – It’s widely expected the BOJ will leave rates and it will firmly continue monetary easing and special programs will be extended if necessary.
• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – June Retail sales are anticipated at -0.8% headline drop with a flat ex-auto figure, following respective May declines of -1.3% and -0.7%, as the March pop from stimulus checks continued to unwind.
• Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary Michigan sentiment report should reveal a rise to 88.0 from 85.5 in June, following cycle-highs of 88.3 in April and 84.9 in March, and a 6-month low of 76.8 in February. Firm confidence into July is good news, though the indexes may prove slow to advance much beyond the April climb with vaccine distributions and stimulus.