Events to Look Out for Next Week

Andria Pichidi

June 18, 2021

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to continue being dominated by the Fed’s shift. However it could easily be walked back if needed, depending on how the recovery proceeds, though incoming US data are likely to affirm ongoing robust economic revival. In the meantime, the calendar is backed by PMI releases from UK, US and EU, while Lagarde and Powell’s comments could keep the market on its feet. Also, the BoE meeting takes place next week, but it seems unlikely that it will break the line when it meets.

Monday – 21 June 2021

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian prelim. Retail Sales for May expected to remain at 1.1% y/y, as Australia’s retailers are ahead of where they would be if COVID-19 hadn’t happened, with cashed-up households shopping locally instead of taking overseas holidays due to the international border remaining closed.
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China in its latest report, announced that they hold Loan Prime Rate steadyfor a twelfth month. Hence, as the economy continues to recover and expectations see the rate pretty stable for the rest of the year, in this meeting no change is expected.
ECB President Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 14:15)

Tuesday – 22 June 2021

Fed’s Chair Powell testimony (USD, GMT 18:00)
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes should provide further guidance for 2021, after they extended today its pandemic funding relief program by six months, and maintained its ultra-accommodative policy setting, leaving the 10-year bond yield target unchanged at around zero, while maintaining the policy balance rate at -0.1%. We might see a repetition in minutes as well.

Wednesday – 23 June 2021

Markit Composite and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30 & GMT 08:00) – The prel. German Composite PMI is expected to continue rising slowly to 57.1 from 56.2 in June. The prel. Eurozone Composite PMI is seen at 58.7 from 57.1. The manufacturing sector is still facing some near-term headwinds from supply chain bottlenecks, which are also adding to short-term inflation risks.
Market Services and Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –In the UK, there has been anecdotal evidence that the services sector in particular is struggling to recruit staff in a post Brexit world. The manufacturing sector is also rebounding, although as BoE officials have highlighted, we will have to wait until wage support measures have been phased out to be able to assess the full impact of the pandemic.
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian retail sales for May April expected to slow down to 2.3% m/m from 3.6% m/m.
Market Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) –The US prelim. Service PMI should be seen at 70.0 from 70.4, while Manufacturing PMI at 61.5 from 62.1.

Thursday – 24 June 2021

European Council Meeting (EUR, GMT N/A) – The meeting will involve the Heads of State and Governments of member states.
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The German IFO business reading is expected to decline slightly to 98.2 in June after it jumped to 99.2 in May.
Interest rate Decision, MPC Voting & Monetary Policy (GBP, GMT 11:00) – The economic data from the UK this week included a warmer than expected CPI print of 2.1% in the headline reading for May. Not exactly a game changer with regard to BoE policy expectations, but still the first time CPI has been above the central bank’s 2.0% target since mid-2019. The data that followed monthly labour data showed a sharp decline in the jobless claimant count alongside a forecast-beating 5.6% y/y spike in average household earnings. However, despite the increasingly optimism on the recovery, BoE is expected to remain cautious and stable.
Gross Domestic Product & Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Q1 GDP growth is expected to trim to 6.2% from 6.4%. The firm Q1 GDP gain documents the updraft from vaccine distributions and two rounds of fiscal stimulus during Q1, alongside a seasonal Q1 updraft after the Q4 downdraft attributable to the mismatch of seasonal factors with this year’s disrupted holiday activities. Durable goods orders are expected to bounce 3.0% in May with a 9.8% rise in transportation orders, after a -1.3% headline decrease in April that included a -6.6% transportation orders drop.

Friday – 25 June 2021

European Council Meeting Day 2
Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -7.5% headline pull back is anticipated for personal income after the -13.1% April plunge, with a 1.0% May rise in compensation after 0.9% gains in March and April.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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