XAUUSD, H4
The direction of the gold price over the past week is not clear. After the US stock markets oscillated between positive and negative days, partly in response to the results from the first quarter earnings reports. Also last week the price of the US Dollar and bond yields started to move in opposite directions as divergence appeared in the relationship. In addition, another move that worried investors was that President Biden proposed raising the tax rate on capital gains on assets held for over one year from 20% to 39.6% for those earning more than $1 million.
Overall for the past week the gold price can still sustain an uptrend due to the depreciation of the US dollar and bond yields. In particular, the USDIndex fell from 91.55 to close at 90.76 last week. And this is the third consecutive week of steady decline. Although the economic and employment numbers remained increasingly positive.
From a technical perspective, H4 continues to hold in the bullish zone above the MA50 and has a significant resistance at $1,800, while Bearish Divergence has been seen since last week, with the MACD falling near the 0 line and the RSI rotating around the 50 level. If the gold price can break the MA50 down today, it will become a short-term sell scenario with the first support at $1,755 while the resistance is still strong at $1,800.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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