Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 07:00) – Industrial production in Germany is expected to have dropped in December, reaching 0.7% m/m, below the 0.9% last month.

Tuesday – 9 February 2021

• Trade Balance (CNY, GMT n/a) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in January, after the surplus of $78.17 billion in December.

Wednesday – 10 February 2021

• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to grow in January at 1.1% m/m, with the headline at -0.1% y/y, following the 0.7% m/m rise on the monthly basis.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The final German HICP inflation for January is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.6% y/y.
• Consumer Price Index (USD, 13:30) – The US January CPI is expected to see 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in December. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 5.4% in January, leaving a tailwind for the headline. As-expected January figures would result in a 1.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.4% pace in December. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y rise, down from 1.6% in December. The headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges are expected to climb sharply into Q2 of 2021 due to hard comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.4% area in May, alongside a 2.6% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 2.6% and 2.0%.
• BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)

Thursday – 11 February 2021

• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 779k in the week ended January 30 after dropping -63k to 812k in the prior week. The decline in the most recent survey week leaves claims at the lowest level since the 716k reading in the November 27 week.  Continuing claims dropped -193k to 4,592k in the January 23 week after slumping -190k to 4,785k (was 4,771k). This was another encouraging claims report, a trend which is expected to continue.

Friday – 12 February 2021

• Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to slow down slightly at 15.8% q/q and -9.4% y/y.
• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have risen, with both providing an upwards contribution of 0.5% m/m and 0.9% m/m in December.