GBPUSD, H4
The pair was turbulent yesterday before entering the European market, but calmed down during the US market open. The reason for yesterday’s turbulence came from hopes of promising progress in the Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU – until there was an announcement from the EU Commission Chair Ursula von der Leyen announcing legal action against Britain for violating the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
The key driver of GBPUSD right now lies in the increasingly intense Brexit negotiations, an issue that will continue alongside the US presidential election and will end at the same time. The 2.2/1.5 trillion US economic aid and stimulus measures will be another key issue that will create volatility.
Today, however, all eyes are on the Non-Farm September employment figure. It is expected to be 850K – 900K, lower than the previous one at 1,371K, while the September ADP figure came out at 749K.
From the technical point of view, the H4 pair could hold above the MA50 for a whole week. This is above the psychological level of 1.2800 and will be an important support for today. If it breaks down, there is a chance the two-month low at 1.2700 will be tested, while the first resistance is at the high zone seen yesterday at 1.2950 and the next resistance at the MA200 at 1.3000.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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