Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Retail Sales & Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30 & 01:30) – The June retail sales are expected to stall at 2.4%, while the consensus for the trade balance is a slight rise in the surplus, to AUD $8.76 bln.
• Event of the week – Interest rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –Australia is in recession for the first time in 29 years. In the last meeting the RBA left rates on hold as expected, while it advised that rates will remain low for an extended period. Last week RBA Governor Lowe repeated what was stated in the minutes of the RBA board’s July policy meeting, that “there is no case for intervention in the foreign exchange market, given its limited effectiveness when the exchange rate is broadly aligned with its fundamental determinants.” The minutes also stated that negative interest rates were “extraordinarily unlikely” in Australia.
• Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Quarterly jobs data is expected to ease a bit from the initial pandemic impact, with the unemployment rate for Q2 at 3.8% from 4.2% and employment change at 0.3% from 0.7% last quarter.

Wednesday – 05 August 2020

• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – 19.1% June retail sales gains are expected for the Eurozone, following 17.8% May gains.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP report is expected to reveal a 2,246k July gain.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 54.0 from 57.1 in June and an 11-year low of 41.8 in April, versus a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018 and an all-time low of 37.6 in November of 2008. Producer sentiment is sustaining May and June rebounds into July.

Thursday – 06 August 2020

• Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (GBP, GMT 06:00)  – The BOE officials voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged, but a 9-0 majority opted for an extension of the asset purchase target by GBP 100 bln to now GBP 745 bln. No changes expected in rates, voting or outlook.
• BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 11:30)

Friday – 07 August 2020

• RBA Monetary Policy Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA is expected to keep policy settings unchanged and to stress again that fiscal and monetary support will be needed for some time and repeated the pledge to scale up the bond buying program if necessary. So again an easing bias is seen. The RBA is expecting a bumpy recovery that will depend on the containment of the coronavirus.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 3,300k July NFP increase is anticipated, after gains of 4,800k in June. The jobless rate should fall to 9.7% from 11.1%. A -3,531k drop in continuing claims could be seen between the June and July BLS survey weeks, which is double the decline seen from May to June. Average hourly earnings are assumed to fall another -0.4% in July, with a continued unwind of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories. The payroll rebound is expected to continue through Q3 as workers are allowed to return to work, but the climb will still leave a net drop for employment for 2020 overall.
• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment soared 952.9k in June after the 289.6k rise in May. The June gain was better than expected, as the reopening of the economy saw jobs return. For July unemployment is seen rising at 12.8%, with a net change in employment at 653.3K from 952.9K in June. Hence there is a long way to go in terms of returning to pre-Covid levels of employment. The unemployment rate fell to 12.3% in June from 13.7% in May.