EURUSD, H4 – Even though the weekly framework is still sideways, the overall view of this pair is still considered positive. However, due to the strength of the USD yesterday, the pair pushed back to below 1.3000, after it initially propped up following the European Economic Report yesterday . Overall, the results were lower than expected. German industrial production came out at 7.8% from the forecast of 11%. France had a trade deficit more than expected at -7.1 billion, while Italian retail sales came out better than expected.
Throughout June the pair was in the range of 1.1200-1.1350. In the H4-chart it has been being supported by the 50-period EMA line since yesterday. From last week we began to see higher lows as well as new highs, suggesting that it is likely to see the pair test the same high again at 1.1350. The MACD is still in the positive territory, but if we see the pair breaking through the 50-period-EMA, it could be seen that this pair will come down to test the key support zone at the 200-period EMA , which clashes with the 1.1200 low.
However, in larger time frames like the weekly one, it can be seen that the EURUSD is already trying for the 6th consecutive week to pass the major Resistance level at the 200-week EMA or higher, but it looks to be stuck between the 50-week and the 200-week EMA. Hence any pullback away from the 200-week EMA could see the asset retesting the 50-week EMA line if the 1.1200 fails to provide Support.
The economic calendar this week is quiet. The key data from the EUR side today is the European Commission’s economic growth forecast. On Thursday, there is the European group meeting Including numbers using the US unemployment privileges, and on Friday, US PPI numbers will be announced.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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