Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing on all the key financial events globally.Virus jitters will remain a focus along with Beijing and several US states as real data continues to reveal the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Market attention is honed in on any trade escalations but also on next week’s agenda, the high frequency data of the world’s biggest economy remaining a major focal point for markets.
Monday – 22 June 2020
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –
Tuesday – 23 June 2020
Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prel. June composite PMI for Germany is forecasted to register an upwards reading to 34.1 from 32.3, while the Eurozone’s number is expected to decline to 25.0 from 31.9.Markit PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The May final services PMI was revised up to 29.0 from 27.8 vs 13.4 in April, and final manufacturing PMI revised up to 40.7 from 40.6, vs 32.6 in April.New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – A 1.1% May increase is seen for new home sales to a 630k pace, after a slight rise to a 623k rate in April. We saw a 12-year high of 774k as recently as January. The start of mandated closures in mid-March fueled the March-April pull-back for sales, following robust growth for all the housing measures through the winter, though a big Q2 hit is expected on home sales. As the economy reopens, the recovery for new home construction will likely be faster than for the rest of the economy, given solid fundamentals going into the crisis, and even lower mortgage rates.
Wednesday – 24 June 2020
Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00 ) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to slow down to 78.3, after it unexpectedly rose to 79.5 in May.Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is currently at -$2.5B.
Thursday – 25 June 2020
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions.Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – US initial jobless claims fell -58k to 1,508k in the week ended June 13 following the-331k drop to 1,566k (was 1,542k) in the June 6 week. That’s an 11th consecutive weekly decline since the record surge to an all-time high of 6,867k in the March 27 week.Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 17.0% in May with a 105% surge in transportation orders, after a -17.7% headline orders decrease in April that included a -48.3% transportation orders decline.US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – No net revision in the -5.0% Q1 GDP growth clip is anticipated. The revised Q1 data will still depict a quarter that was likely posting respectable 2% growth until mid-March, when mandatory shutdowns prompted a dramatic output plunge.Tokyo CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have declined at -0.2% y/y in June ex Fresh Food.
Friday – 26 June 2020
Personal Spending and Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal consumption is expected to decrease by -5.7% in May after a 10.5% increase in April, alongside a 5.2% rebound in consumption that follows a -13.6% decrease in April. April income faced a big boost from the CARES Act that will be partly unwind into May.Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the lift to 78.9 from 72.3 in May.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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