Following a week of aggressive global central bank easing, with the escalation of the US-China trade war that is looking to have turned into a currency war, markets might take a small breath in the week ahead. However, the markets expected to remain volatile as the week is packed of economic data releases.
Tuesday – 13 August 2019
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for July expected to remain at 1.1% y/y after falling from 1.3% y/y in July’s preliminary release.
- Average Earnings & ILO Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.8%, with average income falling 3.5% y/y in the three months to June in the ex-bonus figure, and to 3.1% in the in-bonus figure from 3.4% y/y in July.
- ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for August is projected at -22.3 from the -24.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to improved slightly at -3.1 from -20.3.
- Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US CPI is expected to rise a 0.2% headline in July with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective June readings of 0.1% and 0.3%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.6%, steady from 1.6% in June, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from June. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early-Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that reversed course temporarily in May.
Wednesday – 14 August 2019
- Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have decreased at 5.8% y/y in July from 6.3% y/y last month. A weak reading is also expected in Retail Sales figure at 8.6% from 9.8%.
- Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00-09:00) – German Preliminary Q2 results are expected to have stood at 0.4% q/q. Eurozone prelim. Q2 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
- Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK July CPI expected to meet once again the expectations at 2.0% y/y, which was unchanged from the May rate. Core inflation should remain to 1.8% y/y. The data fits BoE projections, and shows that perky wage inflation hasn’t translated into higher headline rates yet.
Thursday – 15 August 2019
- Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5.2% in July, employment change is expected to have increased to 26.8K from 0.5K last month.
- Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -1.4%m/m in July following a 1.0% m/m contraction in June. In the y/y comparison, sales should rise 4.0% while the ex-fuel is projected at 2.7% y/y from 3.6% y/y.
- Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% July retail sales headline is anticipated with a 0.5% increase for the ex-autos figure, following 0.4% June gains for both measures. Gasoline prices should provide a boost to retail activity given an estimated 1.7% gain for the CPI gasoline figure, though unit vehicle sales fell to a 16.8 mln pace in July from a 17.1 mln clip in June. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.9% rate in Q3, following the 4.3% Q2 clip.
- Philadelphia Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 9.0 from a 1-year high of 21.8 in July, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.
Friday – 16 August 2019
- Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should rise to a 1.260 mln pace in July, after a dip to 1.253 mln in July. Permits are expected to improve to 1.270 mln in July, after falling to 1.232 mln in June. Overall, starts and permits should show a firm path into Q3, and the Q3 averages are expected of 1.263 mln for starts and 1.295 mln for permits.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.5, up from the final July sentiment at 98.4.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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