Last week of June ahead, with a caution turning into Osaka G20 meeting and the coveted Trump-Xi meeting. Market attention is also honed in on any trade escalations but also on next week’s inflation data which could have an impact on ECB’s next move.
Monday – 24 June 2019
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00 ) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to hold at 97.3, after it unexpectedly fell back to 97.9 in May from 99.2.Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $5.32 billion in May, compared to $5.48 billion in April.
Tuesday – 25 June 2019
OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)
Wednesday – 26 June 2019
Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – We expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time. ” So no change in the rate setting is anticipated into 2019.Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.
Thursday – 27 June 2019
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.
Friday – 28 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.
Click here to access the Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
