Event of the Week – Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations are for a 170-180k April nonfarm payroll increase, after gains of 236k in March, 326k in February, and 472k in January. An uptrend for the claims data in April implies downside payroll risk. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian jobs are expected to decline 1.2k from a robust 34.7k last month, 21.8k in March and a current cycle and 12 month high at 150.0k in February. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5% for a fifth consecutive month.
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