Market Update – April 20 – Markets Tread Water

By
Analysis Team
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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
The USD continued to rotate (USDIndex at 101.65) hotter UK inflation data added to more global concerns that core price pressures remain too elevated & the Beige Book did not provide the evidence that credit conditions are tightening significantly enough to take the Fed off the hook for more action. FOMC, ECB & BOE all set to hike in May, divergence to follow in the summer? Stocks were flat overall again, with some strong Earnings (Abbott Labs +7.82% IBM, TSMC & WAL +24.12%) some mixed (Morgan Stanley) and some missed (#TSLA, -6% after hours). Asian markets are subdued as PBOC leave rates unchanged and the NZD underperforms as inflation cools significantly. Fed’s Williams & Goolsbee reiterated that inflation is still “too high” and the FOMC will “act”. ECB’s Knot “too early to talk about a pause in rate hikes”.
Overnight RBNZ inflation measure for Q1 2023 5.7% vs. 5.8%, German March PPI -2.6% vs -0.5%.
  • FX – USDIndex rotates at 101.65, EUR holds at 1.0970 and JPY pushed to over 135.00  before declining to 134.50. Sterling got a big boost from the inflation data and trades at  1.2470.  
  • Stocks – US markets closed flat again (-0.23% to 0.03%) #US500 closed unchanged at 4154. – US500 FUTS are at 4167 and below the key  resistance at 4175. 

  • Commodities – USOil – Futures tanked into $78.35 today following inventory decline of 4.6 million barrels and weak Asian markets, Gold – continued to slip, testing $1970, yesterday before recovering to trade at $2000.0
  • Cryptocurrencies – BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday, breaking $29k  today. 

Today – US Weekly Claims, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Waller, Mester, Bowman & Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel. EARNINGS Phillip Morris, AT&T, American Express, Publicis, EssilorLuxottica, Renault & Nokia.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.75%). Tanked from 2-day highs at 0.5580 yesterday to 0.5513 lows today.  MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 33.28 & flat, H1 ATR 0.00101 Daily ATR 0.00530.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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