EURUSD, H1
The Philly Fed bounced to 13.7 from a 33-month low of -4.1 in February but a higher 17.0 in January, versus a 1-year high of 32.3 in May. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed rose to a 5-month high of 55.8 from a 2-year low of 51.9 in February and 54.6 in January, versus a 45-year high of 61.9 in May. There was a big gain for shipments, and small gains for most components except employment, deliveries, and the price indexes, alongside a big drop in capital expenditure plans to a 2-year low. Last Friday’s Empire State revealed the opposite March swing, but we see the mix as signalling a slight firming pattern for March on net. The Empire State headline fell to a 2-year low of 3.7 from 8.8 in February but a similar 3.9 in January, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to a 2-year low of 51.7 from 52.5 in February but a similar 51.9 in January.
The weekly initial claims dropped 9k to 221k in the BLS survey week and reversed the 7k rise to 230k (was 229k) from a similar 223k at the start of March. This leaves claims at the elevated levels that emerged last November, but with a smaller up-tilt in Q1 than feared earlier. Claims are still historically tight, but have given back some of the exceptional improvement through last autumn. Claims are averaging 225k thus far in March, versus 227k in February, 223k in January and 219k in December. We saw a cycle-low 207k in September. Today’s 221k BLS survey week reading lies above recent figures of 217k in February, 212k in January, 217k in December, but below the 225k reading in November.
The better than expected US data helped the recovering Dollar. EURUSD moved to day lows at 1.1377, USDJPY breached 110.55 and USDCAD moved to intra-day highs of 1.3349 following weaker Canadian wholesale trade data.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
