Following the OPEC meeting this week, two no-event interest rate decisions are scheduled next week. The event of the week is the UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit on Tuesday.
Monday – 10 December 2018
- Australia Loans (AUD, GMT 00:30) – After RBA admitting that housing remains a worry, the sector has attracted much more attention. Forecasts suggest that housing loans are expected to increase by 0.3% which could perhaps break the negative streak of deleveraging.
- Unemployment Rate (CHF, GMT 06:45) – Despite the worse than expected GDP results, consensus expectations suggest that the unemployment rate will have decreased to 2.4% in November.
- Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have grown by 0.4% y/y in October, supporting the UK’s growth perspectives ahead of the Brexit decision on Tuesday.
Tuesday – 11 December 2018
- UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit (GBP, N/A) – UK Parliament will convene to decide whether PM May’s Brexit plan is valid or not. In case the Parliament does not approve it, the probability of a hard Brexit will increase exponentially.
- Employment and Earnings (GBP, 09:30) – Average earnings are expected to have increased by 3% in October, same as the previous month. The unemployment rate for October is expected to have remained at 4.1%.
- House Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian House Price index is expected to continue its downwards course, declining 1.5% on a q/q basis.
Wednesday – 12 December 2018
- Inflation Rate (USD, GMT 13:30) – Core CPI inflation is expected to have stood at 2.2% in November, up from 2.1% in October.
Thursday – 13 December 2018
- SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF, GMT 09:00) – SNB is expected to present its views regarding current and future monetary policy in Switzerland.
- ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 12:45) – While there is no expectation for a rate hike, ECB should provide a definite confirmation about the end of QE in Europe and some guidance about future monetary policy actions.
- Tankan Outlook Indices (JPY, GMT 23:30) – In the case where Tankan indices are above 0, an improvement in conditions is to be expected. For Q4, the manufacturer index is expected to stand at 17, whereas the non-manufacturer index should stand at 21.
Friday – 14 December 2018
- Euro Area PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to come out higher in December, at 53.5, 52, and 52.8 respectively, continuing to signal growth in the region.
- Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 13:30/14:15) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.2% in November, compared to 0.8% in October. Industrial Production is expected to have grown in November, to 0.3% m/m, compared to 0.1% in October.
- US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to show mixed signals, as consensus forecasts suggest that the former will decrease to 55.2 from 55.3 last month, while the latter should increase to 55, from 54.7 in November.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
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