EURUSD, H1
US durable goods orders dropped 4.4% in October after September’s 0.1% dip (revised from 0.7%), much weaker than expected. But much of the decline was in transportation orders which fell 12.2% versus the prior 0.9% increase (revised from 1.9%). Excluding transportation, orders edged up 0.1% after sliding 0.6% (revised from 0.1%) previously. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft were flat after dropping -0.5% previously (revised from -0.1%). A gain in this component hasn’t been posted since July. October shipments declined 0.6% last month following September’s 1.0% pop (revised from 1.2%). Nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft were up 0.3% from -0.2% (revised from unchanged). Inventories were unchanged after rising 0.8% (revised from 0.7%). The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.61 (revised from 1.60).
The weekly US initial jobless claims rose 3k in the week ended November 17 to 224k after rising 7k to 216k in the November 10 week to 221k (revised from 216k). Note that this week’s number coincides with the BLS survey week, giving it a little extra importance. The 4-week moving average increased to 218.5k from 216.5k (was 215.25k). Continuing claims dipped 2k to 1,668k in the November 10 week following the 40k bounce in the November 3 week to 1,670k (was 1,676k). There didn’t appear to be any major anomalies in the data (no state estimated the numbers), though the week’s report included the Veterans Day holiday.
The dollar eased after the weak durable goods print, and higher jobless claims, taking EURUSD to N.Y. session highs of 1.1425 from lows of 1.372, and USDJPY to 112.91 lows from near 113.05.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
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