Apple, H4 and Daily
Today, FAANG earnings announcements are reaching to an end, with the Apple being the last one releasing its third quarter earnings for 2018 after today’s closing bell on Wall Street. Apple shares, but in general stocks, moved broadly higher, globally, after a mixed session in Asia where Japanese markets underperformed.
Apple shares opened $4 higher, reaching the 20-day SMA, as market participants are looking forward ahead of third Quarter earnings report. Markets remain cautious to see whether the global trade tensions had an impact on company’s growth and company’s forecasts for the holiday season.
Apple’s consensus recommendation is “neutral to buy”, corresponding to the majority of the consensus recommendation for the Online Services peer group , as 13 out of 24 analyst firms suggest remaining on hold, and 11 propose the “buy” or “strong buy” possibility. According to Zacks Investment Research, the social network giant is expected to have $2.79 in earnings per share during the third quarter of 2018, which represents an incline by nearly 19% since the reported EPS for the fiscal quarter ending June 2018, and a yearly increase of up to 34.7%. Revenue is expected to be released at $61,558.40 billion, 13% up from the $53,265.00 billion reported in the previous quarter.
Aside from the EPS number, investors would probably turn their eyes on net sales, as Apple is anticipated to have boosted into the market more than 48 mln iPhones during the past 3 months. This is higher than the last September, and could push phone’s price even higher, especially as iPhone XR is already out. Therefore, this along with the optimistic view on iPhone XS and XS MAX sales, Apple’s total sales for the third quarter, are expected to positively surprise. Apple’s main concern seems to be the US-China trade war and Apple’s wealth in China. However as Apple is the 1st trillion listed company in the world, the trade war is unlikely to have a huge impact on it.
Turning to the technical side, if the company achieves accuracy with its forecast, then a positive earnings outcome without any negative surprises could attract more bulls back into the market. This could boost price action higher and hence a correction to October’s drop. In the near term, a closing today above the Resistance at $221.30, which reflects the confluence of 50-day SMA and the latest up daily fractal. This is a crucial level as it represents also the break of 50.0% Fib. retracement level since the $233.42 high.
Therefore such move could confirm the turn of the outlook from neutral to a bullish and we could see stock retesting year’s peak at $233.42.
The daily momentum indicators meanwhile comply with a neutral picture. RSI is consolidating close to 50 since mid of October, whilst MACD lines are just a breath below the neutral zone.
In the intra day chart, the sell-off sentiment pushes the stock price lower, amid a combination of events. Immediate Support holds at $213.43, which is Tuesday’s close and 2 consecutive low fractals area. Therefore a disappointing earnings outcome could extend Apple’s price lower to the $213.43 Support. Further losses could lead to October’s low at $207.30.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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