Monday
- German IFO Business Climate (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. August numbers are expected to show an improvement in business climate.
- UK National Bank Holiday – London closed.
Tuesday
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (USD, GMT 13:00) – The index examines changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. This report serves as an indicator for the health of the US housing market. A positive growth rate is considered a bullish sign, with current consensus expectations indicating a 6.5% growth.
Wednesday
- US preliminary Q2 GDP results (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the week. The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. Usually, high growth or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. GDP growth is expected to remain at the same levels as the previous quarter.
- Retail trade for July (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The index captures the aggregate sales made for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy, but consensus expectations is that July trade will decrease by 0.3%.
Thursday
- German CPI (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The price level in Germany is expected to be at the 2% level set by the ECB. Higher CPI usually suggests currency depreciation. German CPI could be a leading indication of how Euro Area CPI will move on Friday.
- US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, a high reading is expected to be bullish for the USD. Expected PCE inflation to stand at 2.2% similar to the previous month.
- Canadian preliminary Q2 GDP results (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Gross Domestic Product for Canada is released on a monthly basis and is expected to grow by 0.2% since last month. Usually, higher than expected GDP numbers are positive for the currency.
Friday
- European Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Unemployment numbers are probably nearly as important as the GDP growth figure. European unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.2%, compared to 8.3% in line with the positive developments in the region.
- European CPI Flash (EUR, GMT 09:00) – European CPI for August is expected to remain stable, at 2.1%, with core CPI expected to remain at about 1.1%. A positive surprise could be bad for the currency.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
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