Monday
- RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 22:00) – Governor due to speak at the Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s National Financial Capability Strategy. Minutes of RBA Monetary Policy Meeting to come out on Tuesday 01:30 GMT. Today’s comments on keeping rates low and suggesting that a modest depreciation of the AUD would be helpful pushed the currency upwards.
Outcome: No major movements in the currency.
Tuesday
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Net borrowing captures the amount of new debt held by the government. Negative borrowing suggests that accounts are in surplus. Less borrowing than predicted is usually good for the currency, but last month more borrowing supported a short upwards movement for the GBPUSD pair.
- New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is expected to be good for the currency.
Outcome: Upwards movement in the GBP, given better than expected net borrowing, indicated a larger-than-expected surplus. Large upwards movement in the Kiwi, reaching 0.6720 against the USD, registering a two-week high, following better than expected retail sales.
Wednesday
- Canadian Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is most often good for the currency. Higher than expected retail sales were combined with other announcements last month, so no clear conclusions can be reached.
- FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. The detailed report offers in-depth insights regarding the conditions which have influenced the Federal Reserve’s members as to where the interest rates should be set. Currency response depends on the minutes’ content. Probably the most important event for the USD in the upcoming week.
Outcome: CAD reacted negatively, dropping 6 pips, at the announcement as retails sales including automobiles declined by 0.2% compared to the expectation for a 0.1% decline. No major developments in the USD as Fed Minutes pointed to the expectation of a rate hike in September.
Thursday
- Jackson Hole Symposium (Full Day) – The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is a forum for the top central bankers, policy experts and academics of the world who come together to discuss policy issues. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. This year’s topic relates to changing market structure and implications for monetary policy. Last year, comments by Mario Draghi caused the Euro to rise to its highest level since January 2015, up 1% during the day.
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, aim to provide an overview of financial, economic and monetary developments aimed to provide the rationale behind policy decisions. Currency response depends on the accounts’ content.
Outcome: ECB Accounts noted that no rate increase is expected at least until the end of next summer and EUR depreciated about 40pips against the USD.
Friday
- Jackson Hole Symposium (Full Day) – The event continued for a second day, with speakers hailing from various US and international universities, the ECB and the IMF among others.
Outcome: Governor Powell’s comments about future, gradual, rate hikes as the economy is getting stronger and can handle more normalisation of policy. There was no mention of Trump’s remarks during the speech, but Powell acknowledged risk factors “abroad and at home, that, in time, could demand a different policy response”. The EURUSD jumped by 38 pips at the speech, likely due to the acknowledgement of uncertainty in the markets.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
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