Events to Look Out for Next Week

• PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidance on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the Yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.
• German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German IFO business reading is expected to rise slightly to 91.8 in February after it dropped more than expected at the start of the year, with the overall reading falling back to 90.1 from 92.2 in the previous month.
• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson speech (GBP, GMT N/A)

Tuesday – 23 February 2021

• Average Earnings Index & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to slow down to 2.9% y/y in the three months to December from 3.6% last time. UK ILO unemployment is expected higher at 5.1% in the three months to December.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The final CPI headline and core are expected to show 0.2% m/m January gains, with the core declining to 0.5% m/m. National core CPI is expected to be at 1.4% y/y.
• Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The US Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 90.0 from 89.3 in January, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. The expectations index should fall to 92.0 in February from 92.5, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 27.3 in February of 2009. The 1-year inflation measure  should remain at January’s 5.8%. The confidence measures have shown divergent swings since mid-2020 that have meant a downward tilt into Q1, likely due to the surge in virus cases, more stringent lockdowns, and the bizarre political events of January. A lift from stimulus payments and vaccine distributions into February and March should be seen however.

Wednesday – 24 February 2021

• Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00-02:00) – The RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady at 0.25%. It is expected that it will repeat its  intention to keep monetary policy very stimulatory for an extended period, even if inflation pops higher in the near term.

Thursday – 25 February 2021

• Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Initial Jobless Claims rose 13k to 861k in the week ended February 13 after climbing 36k to 848k (was 793k) in the prior week. That brought the 4-week moving average to 833.25k from 836.75k (was 823k). Claims not seasonally adjusted fell -5.7k to 862.4k following the 18.4k gain to 868.1k (was 813.1k). Continuing claims dropped -64k to 4,494k in the February 6 week after declining -133k to 4,558k (was 4,545k) in the last week of January. The insured unemployment rate was 3.2%, steady versus the prior week.
• Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Q4 GDP is expected to boost to 4.4% from 4.0%, with hikes of $6 bln for both factory inventories and residential construction, $5 bln for wholesale inventories, and $4 bln for public construction, but trimmings of -$2 bln for nonresidential construction and -$1 bln for exports. The Q4 GDP data documents a sharply diminished rebound in consumer activity, but a still-robust climb for business fixed investment, as companies struggle to replenish inventories. The GDP growth rates are seen at 3.2% in Q1 and 5.6% in Q2 and Q3, as stimulus payments and vaccines allow a bounce in consumer activity alongside continued strength in investment spending, and a continued rapid rebound in international trade.
• Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Durable Goods orders are expected to rise 0.8% in January with a 1.0% climb in transportation orders, after a 0.5% headline orders rise in December that included a 1.1% transportation orders gain. A defense orders gain is pegged at 4.9%, following a -5.1% December drop.

Friday – 26 February 2021

• Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Personal Income for January is expected at 11.4% thanks mostly to a projected 55% rise in “current transfer receipts” attributable to winter stimulus payments. Daily Treasury data show $131 bln in January payments to individuals, which is annualized in the income report. Also a 1.1% January rise for wage income and compensation due to a 0.9% January rise for hours-worked and a 0.2% increase for hourly earnings are anticipated. The consumption should rise to 0.5% after a -0.2% December decline.