Market Update – February 19 – Stocks and bonds remain mostly underwater

Market News Today

Stocks and bonds remain mostly underwater. The disappointing jobless claims report and higher Treasury yields also pressured. Bloomberg highlighted that the gauge of global equities is heading for its first weekly fall since January. Reflation trades continue and Treasuries pared early losses during the course of the session, leaving the 10-year yield at 1.30%, up 0.7 bp on yesterday’s close. The JPN225 closed with a loss of -0.7%, the USA100 closed -0.7% lower, with the USA500 off -0.4%, and the USA30 down -0.38%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.02% respectively at the moment.

Headlines:

  • Rising concern that the sharp rise in yields could weigh on corporate profit.
  • The officials are increasingly concerned that the sharp rise in yields and thus refinancing costs will lead to sharp corrections in risk assets and that the halt in equities for now will be welcome in some quarters. 
  • Could the Stocks pause turn into a free tumble? Stocks are a difficult balancing act also for central banks, which continue to try and dampen fears of a cliff edge scenario on stimulus, without fuelling too much of a rally that buys into a recovery which may take longer to materialise than many hope.
  • German PPI inflation jumped to 1.4% y/y in January, from just 0.8% y/y in the previous month. 
  • Elon Musk says Bitcoin is “simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash”.

Today – Data releases focus on preliminary February PMI readings for the Eurozone, Germany and the UK, along with UK and Canadian Retail Sales. The US February PMI readings are also due.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.33%) Spike to 0.7797, ahead of the European open. Fast MAs aligned higher as the asset breaks the R1, with momentum indicators, MACD and RSI bullishly crossed. R2 at 0.7820 and PP: 0.7760 ATR 1H: 0.00095, ATR Daily 0.00549.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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