Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Eurogroup Meeting
• Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y.
• Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending Home Sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth. For October we could see a further decline to -2.6%.

Tuesday – 01 December 2020

• RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, theRBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head sent a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory.
• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation is expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line. 
• Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to -38.7% last month.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks.
• Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00)

Wednesday – 02 December  2020

• RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00)
• Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y.
• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Retail Sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September.
• ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October.

Thursday – 03 December 2020

• Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian Retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y.
• Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but a different sales season amid the pandemic has distorted the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month.
• ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Services PMI is seen at 56.4.

Friday – 04 December 2020

• Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail Sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October and 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall.
• Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight improvement in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6k in October for employment, to 100k.