APPLE, Daily
The world’s largest company, APPLE (APPL), report their 4th quarter earnings ending September 30th after the close of the New York stock market later today The consensus among analysts is for revenues of $64 billion versus $64 billion in Q4 2019 and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69 (with estimates ranging from 0.54 to 0.8) versus $0.76 in the same quarter last year.
Apple hardware has been clearly hit from the disruption in the supply chains, starting with factories and shops in China and rippling out across the wider distribution and production facilities in Asia, Europe and then North and Latin America. iPhone sales are likely to miss estimates, but likely to be compensated for by increases in services and possibly other hardware.
Style, design and being the best premium product has always been at the core of what Apple does and the big move in recent years has been away from this dominance of hardware (even though the iPhone still accounts for over 60% of revenues) to invest significantly in services. The initial move was a partnership in 2015 with IBM and Cisco to try to break into the corporate market; this has been followed by Apple Pay and more recently the long awaited upgrade for Apple TV.
Apple TV+ was launched in November 2019. Initially it was only to be in the USA but it was then made available to 100 countries at an extremely competitive $4.99 per month. Apple has entered a very crowded video-streaming marketplace, which remains dominated by Netflix, but includes Amazon and Disney. Apple Services is a growing revenue stream within the technology giant and TV+ marks its latest attempt to diversify its dependence from the ubiquitous iPhone. The aggressive pricing structuring, undercutting its competitors, is a break from traditional Apple pricing models. However, the poor reviews and weak content in the first few months of launch have been disappointing. Disney+ with a huge back-catalogue and equally as aggressive pricing has been the new winner in the streaming wars. Netflix missed expectations last week, but as subscriber numbers continue to grow, what will we see for AppleTV+?
However, this quarter saw the delayed launch of the much heralded iPhone 12 with (finally) 5G capabilities. The buzz word from Apple is the dawn of a new “super cycle” of upgrades, as many in the companies home country of the USA have delayed upgrading awaiting the 5G model. However, 5G coverage in the US is patchy and sporadic and with a highly diffused network of poor signal areas. A lot could depend on the iPhone 12, is the pent-up demand there to be taken advantage of ? Early market gossip and market news suggest their is indeed that demand.
As ever, guidance and outlook will be key with some analysts expecting a hit on revenues because of the iPhone 12 delay and figures could be as low as $60.00 billion. (JP Morgan).
Overall the services and wearables business, including sales of AirPods and Apple Watch consumables is expected to show a hefty 17-24% growth year on year.
In the midst of the Pandemic, Apple announced the launch of the iPhone SE retailing at $399.00, the issue of the cut price iPhone proved a significant success and offered simple churn of existing sales rather than any enhancement of new replacement units. can signs of the upgrade cycle be announced tonight ?
The major Wall Street banks have price targets for the stock ranging from $150 down to $49. The consensus among 41 analyst is a target price of $122 with 23 of the 41 recommending a Buy or Strong Buy rating and none of the 41 with a Sell rating. The stock currently trades at $114.00.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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