The US fiscal stimulus bill is still being negotiated, or not, depending on who you ask. Thursday, October 22 will be the second and final US Presidential Debate before the election on November 3.
The issue of dealing with the coronavirus is sure to come up again in the second and final presidential debate between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Candidate Joe Biden. The initial second debate was canceled after President Trump tested positive for the coronavirus and refused to hold a virtual debate. Many states have allowed or mandated that ballots be cast in the mail this year, so voters can protect themselves from the possibility of catching the coronavirus.
Preliminary voting has also been allowed this year in some states, to spread out polling times. Therefore, many people have already voted for the election on November 3 and this debate may only influence the decisions of a few.
In addition, US fiscal stimulus appears to have followed the lockdown, at least until the elections are over. President Trump wants a $1.8 trillion deal, the Senate $600 billion and the House of Representatives wants a $2.2 trillion deal. However, as the election draws near, Democrats are hoping for a Joe Biden victory and control of the House and Senate. If that is the case, the agreement must come about in February, after the President is inaugurated. Regardless of the timing, the market assumes that a deal will happen.
There has been an increase in US cases of the coronavirus, with the number of new cases increasing in 44 states and deaths per day increasing in 30 states. Confirmed cases in the US are up by about 8 million according to Johns Hopkins University. With only one month left until Thanksgiving in the US, the US government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr Fauci, said Americans should think twice about gathering for the holidays. Equity markets appear immune at the moment, but if the numbers continue to increase this year, they will have a big impact on the main economic data.
USDIndex – Risk of a near-term downside break eased with last week’s recovery, once price sat above the 200-period EMA. Immediate resistance stands at 93.90 with minor support at 92.98. A downward trend is not expected to happen, at least until the election. The price of 91.71 will be the threshold for the greenback’s strength. However, it is unlikely that further rallies will happen, unless the peak of 94.77 is successfully broken.
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Ady Phangestu – Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
Market Analyst
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