EURUSD, H1
US initial jobless claims were steady at 884,000 in the week ended September 5 following the -127,000 drop to 884,000 (revised from 881,000) in the week of August 29 (after the change in seasonal adjustments). That brought the 4-week moving average to 970,750 versus 992,500 (was 991,750). However, on a NSA basis, claims were 20,100 higher at 857,100 after the prior week’s 11,200 bounce to 837,000 (was 833,350). Continuing claims were 93,000 firmer at 13.385 million in the week ended August 29 after plunging -1.2 million to 13.292 million (was 13.245 million).
US PPI rose 0.3% in August, with the core rate increasing 0.4%, hotter than forecast. These follow respective July gains of 0.6% (the highest since October 2018) and 0.5%. The 12-month headline rate edged up to -0.2% y/y firmer from -0.4% y/y, while the ex-food and energy component doubled to a 0.6% y/y clip from 0.3% y/y. Goods prices edged up 0.1% versus the prior 0.8% jump, as food prices fell -04%% after dropping -0.5% in July. Energy prices dipped -0.1% following the 5.3% rise previously. Services prices were up 0.5%, as they were in June.
The Dollar tripped lower following the data, where initial jobless claims disappointed, and continuing claims rose, versus expectations for another sizable drop. Headline PPI meanwhile, was warmer than expected, with the core reading a tenth above expectations as well. EURUSD climbed to a seven-session high of 1.1900 from near 1.1845, (just as Ms Lagarde got to microphone) as USDJPY fell to 106.00 from 106.15. Equity futures remain near session lows, indicating a mixed Wall Street open, following yesterdays rebound from the 50-day moving average tests on Tuesday.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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