AUDCHF, H1
SNB leaves policy on hold, as expected. SNB kept official policy parameters unchanged and re-affirmed its threat to intervene on currency markets as it keeps a watchful eye on the “significantly overvalued” currency amid the multitude of political risks hitting Europe this year. The SNB projections see the first positive annual inflation rate since 2011 this year, with the CPI forecast lifted to 0.3% from the 0.1% expected back in December. For 2018 the central bank sees a slight acceleration to 0.4%, with the headline rate seen reaching 1.1% in 2019.
The Swiss Franc surged slightly higher after SNB Monetary Policy assessment. The hourly weakness in the AUDCHF prompted a short position due to tweezer top earlier today. An entry was taken at 0.76695 with target 0.76610, which is the confluence of the 38.2 Fibonacci level. Target 2 is at 0.7653, which is the mid of 38.2 and 50.0 Fibonacci levels and the significant 200 period EMA. Today’s weakness has breached and broken the 30-period moving average which might attract more short sellers. The parabolic SAR remain negative and Williams’ Percentage range moves in the oversold territory, In the 4-hour chart, RSI is neutral at 57, sloping downwards, while MACD is positive since its turn on Tuesday. However, the break of the last negative fractal, in the 1 hour chart, suggests more downward momentum in short term trading.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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