USOil, H4
Oil prices have risen continuously since the big price drop in late April, as the May Futures contracts expired and the concerns over storage capacity peaked. Also demand was lost because of the Covid-19 outbreak and the lockdowns that followed and the trade war between the major oil producing countries.
However, the relaxation of lockdown measures from early May can be considered as the starting point for the return of oil consumption of large countries like China, which yesterday reported demand is now back to normal levels at 13 million barrels per day. The beginning of May also coincided with the major oil-producing countries implementing the reduction of agreed production estimates. This has enabled USOil prices to push above 30 US Dollars per barrel this week.
Another good thing that will benefit the price of oil at this time is the current weakening of the US Dollar.
From a technical standpoint, H4 now sees bullish pennant patterns that tend to keep oil prices going up. The first resistance is at 33.00, which, if able to break through, is likely to continue to Fibonacci 161.8 at 34.15, which is in line with the MACD that is now in the positive territory. And the price is still running within the uptrend channel.
However, resilience to the second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak remains a risk that the market must keep an eye on, after China’s Jilin city was locked down due to an outbreak of 34 new virus cases.
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Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
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