Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The April Chinese CPI is expected to have improved on a monthly and yearly basis.
• Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI has been estimated at a -0.6% drop in April with a 0.1% core price increase, following respective March readings of -0.4% and -0.1%. The headline will be restrained by an estimated -21% April drop for CPI gasoline prices. As-expected April figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 0.6%, down from 1.5% in March. Core prices should set a 2.0% y/y rise, a down-tick from 2.1% y/y last month.

Wednesday – 13 May 2020

• Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – On March 16, the Bank cut 75 bps to 0.25% and pledged that the rate will remain at that level for at least the next 12 months. In the next meeting, the RBNZ is expected to move to zero or even negative rates, after Governor Adrian Orr said last month that negative rates were not off the table, after New Zealand enforced a strict one-month lockdown to limit the spread of the coronavirus that brought economic activity to a standstill.
• Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to have dipped to -2% q/q following the flat reading of Q4. In a yearly basis, we should see a plunge to -1.6% y/y from 1.1%y/y.
• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The two indices are expected to have declined to -5.8% m/m and -5.6% respectively in March. Such dismal data will suggest that lock downs had a clear devastating impact on the UK economy similar to other economies.

Thursday – 14 May 2020

• Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – As the world has changed since March as the pandemic prompted widespread shutdowns of economies across the globe, employment change for 2020 is expected to show a significant increase to the unemployment rates globally. For Australia, the April employment change is expected to have significantly decreased to -40K from 5.9K in March, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.5% in April, compared to 5.2% in the previous month.
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP for April is anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.8% y/y.
• Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The latest US reports revealed a disappointing round of claims data that prompted downward revisions in April and Q2 growth forecasts. For claims, a 3,169k figure in the first week of May exceeded estimates. But more importantly, continuing claims soared by 4,636k to a much higher than expected 22,647k.

Friday – 15 May 2020