- Japan – Emperor’s Birthday
- Retail Sales (CNY, GMT N/A) – China’s retail trade growth stood at 8 percent year-on-year in December 2019. However a strong decline is expected for January, following the recent releases indicating that new car sales plunged 92% in China in February and airline traffic is expected to post the first drop since 2011 amid heavy virus containment measures in China.
- German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. February’s numbers are expected to incline.
Tuesday – 25 February 2020
- Leading Economic Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The index is expected to show no change in the outlook of the Japanese economy and stand at 91.6.
- Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German GDP is expected to have fallen by 0.3% on an annualized rate in the last quarter of the year, compared to 1.0% growth in Q3.
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer Confidence is expected to have increased to 132.4 compared to 131.6 in the previous month.
Wednesday – 26 February 2020
- New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – The housing recovery should extend into 2020, assuming that mortgage rates remain low and Fed policy remains accommodative. The January new home sales should post a 2.3% climb to a 710k pace, after a dip to a 694k rate in December, versus a 12-year high of 730k in September.
- Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. It will be interesting to see whether the New Zealand trade balance already posts an impact from the epidemic.
Thursday – 27 February 2020
- Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – US preliminary GDP growth for Q4 is expected to trim to 2.0% from 2.1%.
- Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in January with a -4.7% drop in transportation orders. Defense orders should fall by -29%, following the 101.4% December surge. Boeing orders declined to zero planes, following a dismal 3 planes in January.
- Tokyo Core CPI and Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In February, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.9% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to have climbed to 2.3% from 2.2% in December.
- Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 3-month dive in October -December, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, January’s Retail Sales are expected to drop to -1.1% on a y/y basis.
Friday – 28 February 2020
- Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February.
- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could rise to 0.3% m/m for February from the drop seen at -0.6% m/m last month.
- Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q4 following the 1.3% Q3 growth. This should not add to the backing for a rate cut for the Bank of Canada.
- Personal Income (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% rise in personal income in January is anticipated after a 0.2% increase in December, alongside a 0.2% rise in consumption that follows a 0.3% December gain.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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